'It Will Be Catastrophic.' Asia's Tourism-Dependent Economies Are Being Hit Hard by the Coronavirus
BY CHARLIE CAMPBELL / KRABI, THAILAND
TIME
Klong Khong beach on the southern Thai island of Koh Lanta is a long sweep of coarse silver sand fringed by Indian almond trees and palms. A knot of beach shacks offer tourist staples—massages, fruit shakes, grilled seafood—in signs written in English and, in similar prominence, Mandarin Chinese.
Yet few Chinese faces grace Koh Lanta these days as fallout spreads from the coronavirus outbreak that has so far infected more than 60,000 people and claimed at least 1,360 lives. Although the Thai government has not joined many of its neighbors by imposing a complete ban on Chinese visitors, the suspension of tour groups from the People’s Republic, combined with a drop in visitors more generally in response to the crisis, is hitting Koh Lanta hard.
“Last month, there were many, many Chinese staying here,” says Khun Mohammed, whose family runs the Lanta Lapaya Resort in Klong Khong. “Now it’s just one room.”
While the spread of the coronavirus has rattled manufacturers and upset supply chains the world over, the tourism-dependent economies of Southeast Asia are particularly vulnerable. China’s rapidly swelling middle class sparked a boom in tourist visits abroad, which soared from 20 million in 2003 to 150 million in 2018.
Besides Thailand’s, it is the tourism industries of Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan that are most exposed to the Chinese travel market. “If this lasts for three to six months, it will be catastrophic for the tourism industry,” says Stuart McDonald, founder of the TravelFish independent travel guide to Southeast Asia.
Today, Chinese visitors account for 30% of Thailand’s total tourist footfall, spending $18 billion in 2019. Direct tourism spending accounts for an estimated 12% of Thai GDP with Chinese visitors playing “an increasingly important role in underpinning the Thai tourism economy,” according to London-based business information provider IHS Markit.
The fallout is being felt across the self-styled “Land of Smiles.” In Thailand’s stupa-strewn northern capital of Chiang Mai, the 20-room SugarCane boutique guesthouse has suffered cancellations of almost 150 room nights of with almost no new bookings in last two weeks. “The speed with which demand dried up is quite shocking,” says general manager Stuart Cavaliero.
The drop in Chinese tourist numbers from January to April alone could cost the Thai economy $3.05 billion, according to The Tourism Authority of Thailand, not counting the revenue loss of other nationalities choosing to stay away. Arrivals booked by the Association of Thai Travel Agents dropped 99% from China and 71% overall for the first ten days of February compared with the same period last year, reports Reuters.
Other nations face a similarly grim reality. The damage to Vietnam’s tourism sector due to the coronavirus will range between $5.9 billion and $7.7 billion, according to Vietnam National Administration of Tourism estimates. Indonesia’s tourist island of Bali has seen 20,000 hotel bookings canceled, even though Indonesia does not have a confirmed case of coronavirus to date.
Thailand has 33 cases and the public is growing uneasy at the government’s reluctance to close the border to Chinese, who are subject to stringent travel bans by Japan, Australia, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam.
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“แบงก์ชาติ” เผยเศรษฐกิจไทยปีนี้มีแนวโน้มขยายตัวต่ำกว่า 2% หลังไวรัสโคโรนากระทบหนัก ส่วนจีดีพีไตรมาสแรกอาจโตไม่ถึง 1%
นายดอน นาครทรรพ ผู้อำนวยการอาวุโส ฝ่ายเศรษฐกิจมหภาค ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย(ธปท.) กล่าวว่า เศรษฐกิจไทยปีนี้มีแนวโน้มขยายตัวต่ำกว่า 2% เป็นผลมาจากไวรัสโคโรนา (โควิด-19) กระทบการท่องเที่ยวไทย จากข้อมูลกระทรวงท่องเที่ยวฯ พบว่าต่างชาติเที่ยวไทยปีนี้จะลดลง 5 ล้านคนทำให้รายได้ท่องเที่ยวหายไป 2.5 แสนล้านบาท ซึ่งเป็นกรณีเลวร้ายของธปท.เช่นกัน คาดจะทำให้จีดีพีลด 1.5% ซึ่งเดิมธปท.คาดการณ์จีดีพี 2.8% ก่อนปรับประมาณการใหม่ในเดือนมีนาคมนี้ ถ้ากรณีนี้จีดีพีจะเหลือ 1.3% และคาดว่าไตรมาสแรกปีนี้เศรษฐกิจไทยอาจขยายตัวไม่ถึง 1%
https://www.thebangkokinsight.com/290475/
