Another coup for the generals
Thailand’s hopes of democracy are receding
A former prime minister’s flight bolsters the junta
A former prime minister’s flight bolsters the junta
Aug 31st 2017
Source: The Economist
WHEN Yingluck Shinawatra, a former prime minister of Thailand, fled the country a few days ago, she left more than an empty chair in the Supreme Court behind. On August 25th she had been due to hear the verdict in a case against her for negligence in a rice-subsidy scheme she ran while in office that cost the government around $16bn. Though she was ousted in a coup in 2014, Ms Yingluck had remained a symbolic figure for opponents of the junta. The generals will not be sorry she has gone.
The scene at the courthouse—and Ms Yingluck’s absence from it—epitomised the shambles that Thai politics has descended into. When she failed to turn up, the judge said he did not believe her lawyer’s claim that she was ill and demanded her arrest. Despite Ms Yingluck’s poor record in office, and a very heavy police presence, many thousands of her fans turned up at the courthouse hoping to catch a glimpse of her (one of them is pictured, after hearing news of the escape of her hero whose face is on her shirt).
Ms Yingluck fled to Dubai, where her billionaire brother Thaksin Shinawatra, who was prime minister between 2001 and 2006, himself fled 11 years ago before the conclusion of a graft case. The family’s influence reflects the narrowness of the country’s political class. Since 2001 the Shinawatra clan has won every election held in the country that the generals have permitted to take place. Critics of Ms Yingluck claim that her brother continued to pull the strings from his self-imposed exile during his sister’s rule. Like him, she pursued populist policies, such as the rice scheme, which pleased their largely rural supporters, known as “red shirts”, and angered royalist rivals, or “yellow shirts”.
A thrice-delayed general election is due to be held next year. But Ms Yingluck’s departure bodes ill for any hope of renewing Thailand’s democracy. Without her, the red shirts have no political figurehead, says Michael Montesano of the Institute of South-East Asian Studies, a think-tank in Singapore. Her flight will further demoralise the already weak Pheu Thai party she heads.
Without Ms Yingluck, the ruling junta may find it easier to maintain a tight grip. It has dodged the dilemma of imprisoning a much-loved politician, or freeing her and undermining its own authority. Corruption, such as that which plagued the rice scheme on Ms Yingluck’s watch, was cited by the junta as one justification for its coup. (On the day of Ms Yingluck’s no-show, Thailand’s generals had the satisfaction of seeing a 42-year sentence imposed by the Supreme Court on her former commerce minister for offences related to those that she was alleged to have committed.)
But there are potential troubles ahead for the junta. In just two months the cremation will take place of the country’s much loved king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, who died in 2016. He was succeeded by his less popular son, Maha Vajiralongkorn. More drama from the Shinawatra clan could disrupt the careful choreography of the event.
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline "Another coup for the generals"
Source: The Economist
WHEN Yingluck Shinawatra, a former prime minister of Thailand, fled the country a few days ago, she left more than an empty chair in the Supreme Court behind. On August 25th she had been due to hear the verdict in a case against her for negligence in a rice-subsidy scheme she ran while in office that cost the government around $16bn. Though she was ousted in a coup in 2014, Ms Yingluck had remained a symbolic figure for opponents of the junta. The generals will not be sorry she has gone.
The scene at the courthouse—and Ms Yingluck’s absence from it—epitomised the shambles that Thai politics has descended into. When she failed to turn up, the judge said he did not believe her lawyer’s claim that she was ill and demanded her arrest. Despite Ms Yingluck’s poor record in office, and a very heavy police presence, many thousands of her fans turned up at the courthouse hoping to catch a glimpse of her (one of them is pictured, after hearing news of the escape of her hero whose face is on her shirt).
Ms Yingluck fled to Dubai, where her billionaire brother Thaksin Shinawatra, who was prime minister between 2001 and 2006, himself fled 11 years ago before the conclusion of a graft case. The family’s influence reflects the narrowness of the country’s political class. Since 2001 the Shinawatra clan has won every election held in the country that the generals have permitted to take place. Critics of Ms Yingluck claim that her brother continued to pull the strings from his self-imposed exile during his sister’s rule. Like him, she pursued populist policies, such as the rice scheme, which pleased their largely rural supporters, known as “red shirts”, and angered royalist rivals, or “yellow shirts”.
A thrice-delayed general election is due to be held next year. But Ms Yingluck’s departure bodes ill for any hope of renewing Thailand’s democracy. Without her, the red shirts have no political figurehead, says Michael Montesano of the Institute of South-East Asian Studies, a think-tank in Singapore. Her flight will further demoralise the already weak Pheu Thai party she heads.
Without Ms Yingluck, the ruling junta may find it easier to maintain a tight grip. It has dodged the dilemma of imprisoning a much-loved politician, or freeing her and undermining its own authority. Corruption, such as that which plagued the rice scheme on Ms Yingluck’s watch, was cited by the junta as one justification for its coup. (On the day of Ms Yingluck’s no-show, Thailand’s generals had the satisfaction of seeing a 42-year sentence imposed by the Supreme Court on her former commerce minister for offences related to those that she was alleged to have committed.)
But there are potential troubles ahead for the junta. In just two months the cremation will take place of the country’s much loved king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, who died in 2016. He was succeeded by his less popular son, Maha Vajiralongkorn. More drama from the Shinawatra clan could disrupt the careful choreography of the event.
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline "Another coup for the generals"
