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ANALYSIS—The apparent political deal to end the decade-and-a-half long red-versus-yellow conflict in Thailand has unravelled within hours, with King Vajiralongkorn issuing a televised statement that it is inappropriate and unconstitutional for his sister Ubolratana to be a prime ministerial candidate.
It had seemed inconceivable that the Thai Raksa Chart party, one of the political vehicles of exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, would make a deal with Ubolratana to be their candidate for PM without getting approval from Vajiralongkorn.
But in his statement, Vajiralongkorn implied that she had been acting on her own initiative without his blessing.
Today's extraordinary events have now taken an even more dramatic turn.
Royalists who had been appalled by the prospect of a political deal with Thaksin are now rejoicing, while Thais who believed the deal heralded an end to political conflict are heartbroken.
It remains unknown if the royalist elite and junta have somehow managed to intervene and persuade Vajiralongkorn to reconsider, or if he really was not consulted about his sister's plans in advance.
Political tensions in Thailand are now at fever pitch. The country faces significant chaos and uncertainty in the run-up to elections on March 24 and the coronation in May.
With this latest dramatic intervention the king is signalling a split in the royal family, and once again overtly intervening in Thai politics.
There has often been vicious infighting in the Thai royal family but never in the country's modern history has it exploded into the open so dramatically.
Will Ubolratana now announce she will not be a candidate? It seems likely. It would be extraordinary and dangerous to defy the king.
There are dangerous days ahead. Thailand is in uncharted political territory.
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Andrew MacGregor Marshall
