Will Thailand return to electoral democracy in 2018?
Five key scenarios loom as possible outcomes in the country's uneven transition from military rule
By Duncan McCargo
Nikkei Asian Review
January 2, 2018
Excerpt:
The first scenario is another postponement, this time to 2019, perhaps justified by royal ceremonial events beyond the junta's control, such as the official coronation ceremony of the new King Maha Vajiralongkorn. This would infuriate elements of the international community, and exasperate those many Thai voters who feel that the junta, which rules as the National Council for Peace and Order, has now reached its sell-by date. But it would have the advantage of postponing the day of reckoning, when the junta must admit that it has singularly failed to create national unity despite more than four years in power.
A second scenario is that the election is held in late 2018 and pro-Thaksin forces win the day and form a new government, struggling to accommodate themselves to the military and traditional elite.
January 2, 2018
Excerpt:
The first scenario is another postponement, this time to 2019, perhaps justified by royal ceremonial events beyond the junta's control, such as the official coronation ceremony of the new King Maha Vajiralongkorn. This would infuriate elements of the international community, and exasperate those many Thai voters who feel that the junta, which rules as the National Council for Peace and Order, has now reached its sell-by date. But it would have the advantage of postponing the day of reckoning, when the junta must admit that it has singularly failed to create national unity despite more than four years in power.
A second scenario is that the election is held in late 2018 and pro-Thaksin forces win the day and form a new government, struggling to accommodate themselves to the military and traditional elite.
A third scenario is that anti-Thaksin forces, aided by new election rules and perhaps some behind-the-scenes machinations, manage to win control of the new parliament and nominate a civilian prime minister.
A fourth scenario is that following a tight-fought election, provisions in the 2017 Constitution are invoked that make it possible for an unelected individual to become prime minister. There remains a real chance that this could mean Prayuth or another military-backed figure holds office even after the polls.
A fifth scenario, currently unlikely, is that either before or after the election, growing tensions inside the NCPO and the upper echelons of the army lead to a second coup that replaces Prayuth and his close associates with a new ruling clique of top military men.
In all this, the palace may play a key role. According to some readings, the new king would gain a much-needed boost in legitimacy from fresh elections and any resulting retreat of the NCPO leadership, which has been sounding increasingly tired and shrill over recent months. If so, a 2018 election looks highly likely. But if the uncertain outcome of the impending election threatens to destabilize Thailand and indirectly affect royal standing, the palace might prefer to play safe and support another postponement to 2019, at the earliest. Few would dare to predict which of these various scenarios will unfold in one of the world's most polarized political orders.
...
A fifth scenario, currently unlikely, is that either before or after the election, growing tensions inside the NCPO and the upper echelons of the army lead to a second coup that replaces Prayuth and his close associates with a new ruling clique of top military men.
In all this, the palace may play a key role. According to some readings, the new king would gain a much-needed boost in legitimacy from fresh elections and any resulting retreat of the NCPO leadership, which has been sounding increasingly tired and shrill over recent months. If so, a 2018 election looks highly likely. But if the uncertain outcome of the impending election threatens to destabilize Thailand and indirectly affect royal standing, the palace might prefer to play safe and support another postponement to 2019, at the earliest. Few would dare to predict which of these various scenarios will unfold in one of the world's most polarized political orders.
...
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